We were watching the thunderstorm grow then scream to the northeast over Madison, IN and were amazed at the torrential rain, indications of hail on radar, and worried that it may mean a severe thunderstorm warning for Cincinnati metro. GR2Analyst indicated an extreme tilt, and Normalized Rotation (NROT) was zero.
In addition there was a small core of turbulence (spectrum width) which looked like a hail core. Echo tops were low, only about 20k feet and only a small amount of lightning was indicated.
In addition the cell's position just northeast of the surface low convinced me that the storm, which was behind the surface position of the cold front, formed on the frontal surface aloft and being elevated convection was not likely to pose a damaging wind threat.
The NWS in Wilmington tweeted that it was a "rogue storm" which fits because it is the only lightning producer in the Cincinnati area all day despite our expectations of more.
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| @NWSILN Tweet |
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| Rogue Storm passes over Madison, IN heading to Cincinnati |
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| Close up of Rogue Storm |
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| HRRR MODEL OUTPUT - 850mb Jet east of arrows - animated gif |
ABOVE:
HRRR 18z Run 02.17.2022 (from pivotalweather.com)
First panel 18z Initial
55kt - 65kt 850mb jet over West Central KY
Temp at 850mb 9°C to 10°C
Temp Advection 5°C / hr on the nose of jet
Circle = 850 frontogenesis - circle is 2°C / 100km / 3hrs
Second Panel 21z Forecast
50kt to 80kt 850 jet - nose south of Cincinnati
Temp 9°C to 10°C Madison IN
Temp Advection 3°C to 4°C same area nose of jet
Circles = Frontogenesis has doubled around Cincinnati
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| SURFACE MAP 21Z 02.17.2022 using Digital Atmosphere |
